The recent near-accident while riding on the rough road to Haad Yuan where the center stand dislodged and I needed a MacGyver fix (which was successful by the way) got me thinking about counterfactual analysis.  As I returned the scooter and rode the bicycle all around the island today the following framework came to mind.

A counterfactual is basically the 'what could have happened'.  In this case it mainly applies to how taking preventative actions averts even worse disaster.  But this isn't like insurance.  These actions are taken because you've actually experienced some disasters in the past and/or something happened that prompts taking these steps.

So I thought it would be fun to run a counterfactual analysis on the Full Moon Party

Action #1.  Waterproof phone pouch.  

Prior experience:  I've had water-damaged phones before especially in Vang Vieng Laos.  Phones are both lifelines and liabilities.    

Prevented Disaster:   No water damage from sweat, rain, spilled drinks, or buckets being splashed around.  Protected against beach sand and grime. Allowed me to focus on the moment without obsessing over phone safety.

Counterfactual Timeline:Without the pouch → phone dies midway through the party → no maps, no communication, no bike location photo, no music/photos, no emergency calls.

Result:No broken phone. No data loss. No stranded “WTF do I do now” moment.This was proactive shielding, not post-crisis fixing.

Cost:  160 baht

Estimated value saved:   25,000 baht for phone replacement

Action #2:   Breaking down bills into 100-baht notes and putting in the pouch

Prior experience:  I've fumbled cash at night before, overpaid, dropped bills.  A single misstep at night and while tipsy can cost hundreds of dollars.

Prevented disaster:   No accidental overpayment in poor lighting, no fumbling through large bills in public, no losing money

Counterfactual Timeline:  Without the small bills → hand someone a 1000 thinking it's 100 → they "forget" to return change → argument ensues or I just take the loss.

Result:  no money panic, no foolish errors even while tipsy

Cost:  none

Estimated value saved:  about 2000 baht assuming all the money was lost

Action #3:  Putting the phone inside the pouch and disabling trading apps

Prior experience:  I’ve had bad experiences trading while not fully alert or focused. 

Prevented disaster:  No market-inducded emotional spiral at a party

Counterfactual timeline:    Check a position → trade goes south → spiral emotionally → distraction leads to bad interactions or poor decision-making.  Could lose thousands of dollars

Result:  preserve both physical device and mental clarity

Cost:  none

Estimated value saved:   30,000 baht or $1000

Action #4:  Dual transport strategy

Prior experience:  I've hit checkpoints before and seen how the Thai police roll.  I understand how they monetize chaos and who they target.

Prevented disaster:  Avoided checkpoint fines, maintained control of my own time without relying on taxis or overcrowded sawngtaews.

Counterfactual timeline:   Ride all the way into Haad Rin → checkpoint pulls you over → fine of 500-2000 baht, maybe worse → sour mood or night derailed.   OR  try to ride out drunk at 3am → crash or arrest.

Result:  smooth transitions, no fines.

Cost:  none

Estimated value saved:  30,000 - 50,000 baht

GRAND TOTAL:    110,000 baht which is over a 100,000% return on investment

Now of course this isn't a direct profit, as in you can't exactly "short" counter-factuals.  Because this is essentially like a trade that you purposely didn't enter.  It's like watching Bitcoin tank and you closed your position before it happens.

But the benefit of taking these risks and doing risk assessment is that the upside seriously compounds over time.  Even better, you see just how much you could lose and are preventing it by your actions, thus preserving your "capital" to gain more upside.  The haters will just say, "Well if you're flying close to the sun you'll get burned eventually.  Why don't you just play it safe and not even take these risks"  Fine.  Well then there wouldn't be any Full Moon Party to begin with then.  That in itself is a counterfactual that the haters are proposing:  what if you didn't go at all.  What I'm actually doing is living out what they're afraid of doing and so they hate me for it.

Taking this one step further I had to ask the question:  ok then what about the others at the Full Moon Party?  What could have happened to them?  Well let's estimate with a crowd of 5000 people.

#1:  Those who got fined at the checkpoint.   Estimated victims 200-300, average cost 1000 baht each.  That is probably very conservative.  Those checkpoints could have raked in half a million baht easily.

#2:  Those who lost their wallet on the beach.  Estmated victims 50-100.  Let's say 20k baht each

#3:  Alcohol-induced ER visits.   Estimated victims 10-30.   Suppose 50-100k baht each.  This is definitely no joke as I saw the first aid counters set up and people were indeed using them and it got worse as the night went on.

#4:  Emotional breakdowns.  Estimated victims 200+  I saw this with my own eyes.  If there's one way for a couple to break up it could happen here. 

#5:  Drug related arrests or bribes.  Estimated victims 2-10.   Cost could be 100-200k baht or more.  While it may seem nowadays that there are no police in Thailand and that weed is legalized, that arrests at Full Moon Parties are a thing of the past but you would be mistaken.  Drugs are still illegal!  I wouldn't even go near that shit.  I was approached countless times at raves and other places by dodgy characters asking "You want something?"  How about nothing.

#6:  Physical or sexual assaults.  None yet but I'm sure we'll hear about them soon

So I wouldn't want to brag about this or also cause fear by saying there is a disaster waiting to happen.  Thailand is truly a marvelous place just because it is.  You can have an amazing time here, and it just takes some calculated risk management.